A gamble pays off? Reflecting on Cataluña’s Local Elections
You only have to go back to November last year, when hundreds of thousands took to the streets, to see just how high tensions run over separatism in Spain. Overnight though, for the first time in 24 years, an anti-independence party has won the majority of the vote in Cataluña’s local elections, sparking sentiment that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s gambles over the last year might just have paid off.
“El triunfo de Illa entierra ‘El Procés’” (Illa’s triumph buries ‘El Procés’) is how Spanish newspaper El País reflects on a historic night of Catalonian local elections this morning. ‘El Procés’ refers of course to the pro-independence movements that have surged in popularity in the last few years in one of Spain’s richest regions. The socialist party PSC, led by Salvador Illa, claimed 27.96% of the vote and 42 of 135 seats. Crucially, anti-independence parties won a majority in terms of votes and seats for the first time in 24 years. Illa said that, “The Catalans have decided to open a new era.”[1].
Over the last decade or so, particularly since the financial crash that decimated Spain in 2010, the independence movement surged in popularity in Cataluña. Whilst pro-independence sentiment had traditionally hovered around 20%, policies of austerity imposed by central government left millions feeling more disaffected then ever and eventually lead to an illegal referendum in 2017. Although it did have an extremely large economy at the time, Cataluña’s GDP per capita was still lower than that of Madrid and the Basque country[2]. Populist politician Carlos Puigdemont, however, successfully portrayed Catalonian taxes as paying for the rest of Spain’s troubles and support for independence reached record levels.
It is the fate of Puigdemont that has come to have the most significant lasting effect on Spanish politics since 2017. Puigdemont fled the country and exiled himself to Belgium as nine of his political allies faced convictions for the referendum labelled illegal by the central government in Madrid.
The end of last year though, marked a remarkable political comeback for Puigdemont. Beleaguered Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had been forced to call a general election in which he claimed a shock victory and was forced to look for political allies with whom to form a coalition government. The only option? The Junts party Puigdemont was the de facto leader over. The price? Amnesty for Puigdemont. It was something that Sánchez had categorically ruled out in his first term, even attempting to exile the disgraced politician.
A pardoning of Puigdemont’s nine allies in prison in 2021 signalled a shift in tone in an attempt to calm the situation but the amnesty deal in November last year caused mass protests across the country[3]. That bill is still stuck in the lower house of Spain’s parliament after achieving senate approval and the head of Madrid’s regional government has called it, “the most corrupt law of our democracy.”[4].
This victory of course does not mean that Illa and his PSC party will automatically enter government. The path to forming a local government will be long and could result in another election in several months time. Junts, which Puigdemont led from exile in France, came a close second with 35 seats but other pro-independence parties suffered poor results. Negotiations to form an anti-independence coalition are still not expected to be easy.
Despite this uncertainty, the result is being seen as a seismic event in Spanish politics this morning. Miquel Noguer wrote in El País this morning that ‘El pulso de cambio ganó este domingo en Cataluña”[5] (the pulse of change won this Sunday in Cataluña).” In La Vanguardia, Barcelona’s pro-independence newspaper, Enric Juliana wrote that it was “a return to convergence”[6].
Pedro Sánchez has made several extraordinary gambles over the last year. The first was calling that snap election that many thought he would lose, the second was his deal with Puigdemont, and just last month he declared that he may resign after corruption allegations against his wife. Now, one of the gambles seems to have come off in extraordinary fashion. For the first time in decades, it seems that he has been able to quell the separatist tensions in Cataluña and turn the region, and Spain, towards a more united future.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/12/world/europe/spain-catalan-election.html
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalonia-important-spain-economy-greater-role-size
[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/09/world/europe/spain-catalonia-separatists-pedro-sanchez.html
[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/12/world/europe/spain-catalan-election.html
[6] https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20240513/9636707/gana-illa-vuelve-convergencia.html
