Labour and the young
Young people are willing to give Keir Starmer the benefit of the doubt for now but the Labour leader faces a reckoning in five years time.
As we enter the fourth month of what seems certain to be an election year, 68% of 18–24[1]-year-olds plan to vote Labour. However, as the party continues to shy away from radical thinking and large investments, Keir Starmer will face a battle to keep that demographic on side throughout his time in office.
There are indeed no sure things in politics but it appears all but certain at this stage that Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by the end of this year. A large part of that is the charm offensive he and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves have led over the past year or so, committing to stringent fiscal rules and compromising on any and every spending commitment that risks compromising them. Keeping business on side is vital to bucking the notion that the party is fiscally freewheeling but the total lack of ambition risks leaving the young voters that propel the party to power frustrated.
In September of last year, the YMCA conducted a survey of young people aged 18–25, across the UK. That publication showed that a striking 86% of people in that age group planned to vote in the election later this year, compared to an overall turnout of 67.3% in 2019[2]. Unsurprisingly, the top concerns among young people are housing, job prospects, and health, aligning more or less with other demographics.
What is more surprising is digging down into the numbers, particularly on economic policy. Just 10% of those surveyed by the YMCA supported a falling national debt, despite the fact that Jeremy Hunt and Rachel Reeves have both pledged to “to reduce national debt as a share of the economy”[3].
It is only natural that Reeves and Starmer are determined to avoid spooking the bond markets and investors in the way that Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng did in 2022 but the stark reality is that people across Britain, especially the young, have grown tired of underinvestment.
Make no mistake, it is Sunak and the Conservative government who have led the charge here. From scrapping the vast majority of HS2 to reducing real-terms public spending and rolling back climate pledges, the policies of the sitting government have been widely regarded as backward and unexciting among young people. So far though, Starmer and Reeves have very little to offer.
Of course, there is not yet a manifesto to pick apart but early signs are far from promising. Labour will not be restarting work on HS2, it will not be borrowing significantly to invest in public services, and the dropping of its green investment pledge of £80 billion has left it looking weak in that area too.
The environment, is perhaps where labour is most significantly lagging behind the views of young people. Not only are one in three young people in Britain scared (33%), sad (34%) or pessimistic (34%) about climate change according to a 2023 YouGov poll[4], but the economic battle is being lost too. In February last year, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) found that ‘A lack of leadership is preventing the essential investment to prepare the UK for climate change’[5] and without that investment, Labour would be passing up on the chance to add 5% to the UK’s economy according to the OECD[6].
That same CCC report in 2023 estimated that significant investment in ‘net-zero opportunities’ could create between 135 000 and 750 000 net new jobs in the UK as long as the government engaged in active reskilling and upskilling. As Committee Chair Lord Deben put it, “A Net Zero workforce means secure employment for the future. This is an opportunity for the Government to bring real meaning to ‘levelling up’.”
The only economic policy or direction that Rachel Reeves and Labour frontbenchers seem to be able to cite on the media rounds at the moment are promises of ‘growth’. Without investment though, Reeve’s ‘securenomics’ seems unlikely to work. ‘Bidenomics’, the ethos that delivered the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ in the United States, relies heavily on significant public investment to incentivise businesses to follow suit. National debt as a percentage of GDP may be 18% higher[7] in the US than here but whilst the UK hovers around negative and marginal GDP growth figures[8], stateside that figure is 3.4%[9].
Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership is not a blueprint that Keir Starmer should be following but it is also worth bearing in mind just how successful his 2017 campaign was before 2019’s dramatic collapse. The so-called ‘youthquake’ that he generated resulted in swings of 13 points among under-45s[10] and included memorable campaigning moments like his appearance on Glastonbury’s pyramid stage[11]. Turnout among 18–25s also drove an overall increase of 2%[12]. Antisemitism, poor decision-making, and disastrous leadership blighted the end of Corbyn’s leadership but there are lessons to be learned in the way his radical policies drew such significant support among the young vote in 2017 and well into that parliament.
All of this is not to say that Starmer’s Labour should be moving to abolish private schools or dramatically raise taxes but if it does reach the government then the party will face a real reckoning. Sooner rather than later people will expect the wheels to come off and the borrowing required to not only improve public services but rework the economy. If Starmer and Reeves want to enjoy the kind of longevity that Blair had, those moves will surely be necessary.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1379439/uk-election-polls-by-age/
[2] https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-turnout/
[3] https://www.ft.com/content/9c1eea5b-4fcc-4828-bd8a-f6e63cfc5b5b
[5] https://www.theccc.org.uk/2023/02/01/a-lack-of-leadership-is-preventing-essential-investment-to-prepare-the-uk-for-climate-change/#:~:text=“The%20UK%20faces%20growing%20climate,the%20public%20finances%20over%20time.
[6] http://www.oecd.org/economy/taking-action-on-climate-change-will-boost-economic-growth.htm
[7] https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/United-Kingdom/United-States/Economy/Debt
[8]https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/octobertodecember2023#:~:text=Download%20this%20chart&text=UK%20GDP%20is%20estimated%20to,(COVID%2D19)%20pandemic.
[9] https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
[11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVGFi8balOM
[12] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/29/youthquake-why-age-did-matter-for-corbyn-in-2017
